How Joe Biden’s Impeachment Inquiry Could Affect the 2024 Election

In this Article, On September 12th 2023, House Republicans initiated an official impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden, accusing him of corruption, abuse of power and obstruction of justice. Their inquiry is based on claims that Biden and Hunter Biden financially benefitted from business deals with foreign countries while using his influence as vice president to shield Hunter Biden from legal scrutiny. James Comer is chairing this committee while it also involves Judiciary, Ways & Means committees as participants.

The impeachment inquiry has ignited an intense political battle between Republicans and Democrats, with former alleging a culture of corruption surrounding President Trump while latter dismissing it as “partisan witch hunt” or a distraction from pressing national issues.

biden impeachment 2023

Impeachment proceedings could have lasting ramifications on the 2024 presidential election, set for less than one year away. Here are some possible scenarios and outcomes:

Scenario 1: Biden is impeached by the House, but not convicted by the Senate

biden impeachment 2023

Given the current makeup of Congress, this scenario seems most likely. With a narrow Republican majority in both chambers of Congress – meaning they could pass articles of impeachment against Biden with simple majority votes – in the House and 50-50 divided Senate, with Kamala Harris acting as tie-breaking vote, the odds against convicting Biden are slim to none; therefore 17 Republicans would need to join all 50 Democrats to convict and remove him from office are minimal at best.

Under this scenario, Biden would remain president, yet his presidency would be severely impaired by the impeachment process. He would experience decreased public trust and credibility as well as diminished abilities to govern and advance his agenda. Furthermore, his chances of reelection depended upon several factors including economic health, the COVID-19 pandemic situation, foreign policy concerns and public sentiment towards his impeachment case.

Scenario 2: Biden is not impeached by the House

This option is less likely, yet still possible, should House Republicans fail to gather sufficient evidence in support of impeachment, or some defect from party line and vote against impeachment. This could happen if an investigation drags on for too long, public opinion shifts away from it or new information surfaces that exonerates Biden or implicates Republicans.

Biden would avoid impeachment but still experience its political ramifications in this scenario, facing accusations and investigations which would remain haunting his presidency, defending against GOP attacks against his record and reputation, as well as facing off perceptions that he has been weak or vulnerable or distracted from important issues facing our nation. His chances for reelection would depend on similar considerations as in scenario 1, with Biden likely having an edge against any Republican candidates who supported an unsuccessful impeachment attempt and had to explain their support of such actions.

Scenario 3: Biden is impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate

Although unlikely, but theoretically possible, is for Senate Republicans to convince enough Democrats of voting with them against Biden for impeachment and removal from office. This could happen if an impeachment inquiry unearths compelling and incontrovertible evidence of Biden’s wrongdoing, public sentiment shifts dramatically in favor of impeachment proceedings, or his own party is turned against him due to political pressure or personal animosity.

In this scenario, Vice President Kamala Harris would become president after Biden is impeached and removed from office. She would face both the immediate fallout from impeachment proceedings as well as challenges associated with leading an increasingly divided and polarized country. She must decide if she wishes to run for re-election or step aside and let another Democrat assume the role – her chances will depend on how she handles power transition, performs as president and how the public perceives her; her chances may also depend on her opponent who could try claiming credit for impeachment while portraying Harris as ineffective or inexperienced leader.

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